Integrated Risk Analytics for Cost and Schedule or Joint Confidence Level (JCL) analysis has proven to be successful for NASA. Bottom-up resource-loaded schedules are the most common method for jointly analyzing cost and schedule risk. However, the use of high-level parametrics and machine learning has been successfully used by one of the authors. This approach has some advantages over the more detailed method. In this presentation, we discuss the use of parametrics and machine learning methods. The parametric/machine learning approach involves the development of mathematical models for cost and schedule risk. Parametric methods for cost typically use linear and nonlinear regression analysis. These methods applied to schedule often do not provide the high R-squared values seen in cost models. We discuss the application of machine learning models, such as regression trees, to develop higher-fidelity schedule models. We then introduce a bivariate model to combine the results of the cost and schedule risk analyses, along with correlation, to create a JCL using models for cost and schedule as inputs. We provide a previous case study of the successful use of this approach for a completed spacecraft mission and apply the approach to a large data set of cost, schedule, and technical information for software projects.
Presenters
Sara Jardine
Senior Cost Analyst
Sara Jardine is a Senior Cost Analyst with Galorath. She is an experienced Operations Research Analyst who has worked directly for a broad variety of government agencies, including the Army, Navy, Veterans Affairs, and OUSD AT&L. Ms. Jardine is skilled in Cost Management, Project Management, Requirements Analysis, Cost Analysis, Contract Management, and Budget Management. She has an a M.S. focused in Project Management from The George Washington University and a B.S. in Mathematics from the University of Michigan.
Kimberly Roye
Senior Cost Analyst
Kimberly Roye is a Senior Cost Analyst with Galorath. Starting her career as a Mathematical Statistician for the US Census Bureau, Kimberly transitioned to a career in Cost Analysis over 10 years ago. She has supported several Department of Defense hardware and vehicle programs. Kimberly earned a MS in Applied Statistics from Rochester Institute of Technology and a dual BS in Mathematics/Statistics from the University of Georgia.
Christian Smart
Chief Data Scientist with Galorath Federal
Dr. Christian Smart is the Chief Data Scientist with Galorath. He is the author of the new book Solving for Project Risk Management: Understanding the Critical Role of Uncertainty in Project Management. Dr. Smart is an experienced cost estimator and is a regular presenter at ICEAA conferences. He has received numerous awards during his career, including the ISPA Parametrican of the Year and an Exceptional Public Service medal from NASA.